State-Led Climate Action Can Cut Emissions at Near-Federal Costs but Favors Different Technologies

Christopher S. Galik, PhD
Professor and Director
Sustainable Futures Initiative
Department of Public Administration
School of Public and International Affairs
North Carolina State University

In the absence of comprehensive federal greenhouse gas mitigation policy, state-led strategies may play a pivotal role, particularly following the 2024 United States presidential election. Using a detailed energy system optimization model, we examine the outcomes of 23 climate-minded states pursuing net-zero emissions targets compared to a federal carbon cap achieving equivalent CO2-eq reductions. Here we show that state-led decarbonization results in distinct technology choices, a 0.7% increase in system costs, and nationwide emissions reduction of 46% — substantial, but insufficient for ambitious climate goals. This pathway relies more on electrification, with 952 terawatt-hours more generation in 2050, reallocating 17.2% of emissions to the power sector. Some regions favor solar, wind, and storage, while direct air capture emerges as critical, particularly in California and the Northeast. Inter-regional trading supports and complicates mitigation efforts, underscoring the need for careful policy design. Overall, our findings highlight how state-led and federal decarbonization approaches can yield differing energy portfolios to achieve similar emissions reductions.

Dr. Christopher Stephen Galik is a Professor in the Department of Public Administration and the Deputy Executive Director of the Climate and Sustainability Academy at North Carolina State University. With a Ph.D. in Forestry and Environmental Resources from North Carolina State University, a Master of Environmental Management from Duke University, and a B.A. in Biology from Vassar College, Dr. Galik has a rich background in both academia and professional practice. His research, recognized in journals such as Nature Climate Change and Global Environmental Change, explores the intersection of policy and real-world environmental challenges with a focus on the role of formal and informal institutions in responding to pressing global challenges like climate change. He has received numerous accolades for his teaching and research, including University- and Departmental-Level Outstanding Teaching Awards, as well as recognition as a 2024-2025 University Faculty Scholar.